A Short-Range Forecasting Experiment Conducted during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program

Abstract

During the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP), a dedicated forecast center conducted experiments in mesoscale forecasting. Several forecast products, including a marine forecast and a site-specific public forecast, were written every 3 h. These have been evaluated and compared to a control set of forecasts. Precipitation forecasts prepared at the CASP Forecast Centre (CFC) were found to be significantly better than the control. This improvement is attributed in large part to the fact that the forecasters used a McIDAS workstation. Because of a variety of limitations, verification statistics did not indicate that other weather elements were forecast any better during CASP; however, a study of the results identifies several important deficiencies in the data, their assimilation and manipulation, and the forecast formats. These factors may have implications for the modern weather office that expects to operate an the mesoscale as well as the synoptic scale.