Long-Range Weather Prediction: Limits of Predictability and BeyondSource: Weather and Forecasting:;1988:;volume( 003 ):;issue: 001::page 69Author:Epstein, Edward S.
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(1988)003<0069:LRWPLO>2.0.CO;2Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: The details of the weather are not predictable beyond one to two weeks. At longer time ranges, averages of the weather over space and time can be usefully predicted only to the extent that the variations of the averages exceed the ?noise? produced by the omnipresent but unpredictable transient weather. This margin of potential predictability is not large, but parts of it are being exploited in routinely issued monthly and seasonal forecasts. The format and utilization of these forecasts, the methods by which they are routinely produced, and prospects for improvements are discussed.
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| contributor author | Epstein, Edward S. | |
| date accessioned | 2017-06-09T14:41:02Z | |
| date available | 2017-06-09T14:41:02Z | |
| date copyright | 1988/03/01 | |
| date issued | 1988 | |
| identifier issn | 0882-8156 | |
| identifier other | ams-2440.pdf | |
| identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4161068 | |
| description abstract | The details of the weather are not predictable beyond one to two weeks. At longer time ranges, averages of the weather over space and time can be usefully predicted only to the extent that the variations of the averages exceed the ?noise? produced by the omnipresent but unpredictable transient weather. This margin of potential predictability is not large, but parts of it are being exploited in routinely issued monthly and seasonal forecasts. The format and utilization of these forecasts, the methods by which they are routinely produced, and prospects for improvements are discussed. | |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
| title | Long-Range Weather Prediction: Limits of Predictability and Beyond | |
| type | Journal Paper | |
| journal volume | 3 | |
| journal issue | 1 | |
| journal title | Weather and Forecasting | |
| identifier doi | 10.1175/1520-0434(1988)003<0069:LRWPLO>2.0.CO;2 | |
| journal fristpage | 69 | |
| journal lastpage | 75 | |
| tree | Weather and Forecasting:;1988:;volume( 003 ):;issue: 001 | |
| contenttype | Fulltext |