The Value of a Long-Range Weather Forecast for the West African Sahel

Abstract

This paper is a study of the political, economic, social, and environmental implications for the West African Sahel of a long-range weather forecast. People representing several disciplines and fields of endeavor were asked what they would have done in October 1972 had they had an accurate forecast in terms of monthly averages of rainfall and temperature for the rainy season in 1973. The paper contains their responses and discusses their recommendations in light of the existing social, political, economic, and environmental constraints existing not only in the Sahelian countries but also in the international community. The author's purpose in submitting the paper to the Bulletin is to share information about the existing societal framework (in, for example, the West African Sahel) into which such weather information would be put. The paper is concerned with the social value of the weather information that will most likely be developed in the scientific communities in the industrialized countries.