A PREDICTION AND DECISION METHOD FOR APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY, BASED PARTLY ON THE THEORY OF GAMES

Abstract

With the aid of examples, a prediction and decision method is described for use in applied meteorology or climatology where economic consequences have been evaluated beforehand. The predictand, which may be a single variable or several variables in combination, is divided into a finite number of forecast classes. Confidence limits of the relative frequency of each predictand class are necessary. The mathematical theory of games of strategy is utilized, but elementary algebra suffices for all required computations. The method gives decisions and predictand frequency distributions that tend to minimize expenses (or maximize minimum gains) in ventures affected by weather or climate regardless of how uncertain either of the latter may be.