ON LIMITATIONS TO PREDICTIONSource: Journal of Meteorology:;1957:;volume( 014 ):;issue: 004::page 304Author:Gleeson, Thomas A.
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1957)014<0304:OLTP>2.0.CO;2Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: An expression is obtained for the limit to certainty of perfect prediction, in terms of the amount of verification data and the detail of the predictand. Related expressions are developed for the number of effective predictors that may be combined in a given prediction method, and for the fineness of predictand detail that can be forecast. Applications to evaluation of practical forecast problems are discussed by use of examples. Similar treatments are suggested for specification problems. Because of the generality of their derivations, it is believed that these expressions would be useful in other fields, as well as in meteorology.
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| contributor author | Gleeson, Thomas A. | |
| date accessioned | 2017-06-09T14:11:39Z | |
| date available | 2017-06-09T14:11:39Z | |
| date copyright | 1957/08/01 | |
| date issued | 1957 | |
| identifier issn | 0095-9634 | |
| identifier other | ams-14351.pdf | |
| identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4149903 | |
| description abstract | An expression is obtained for the limit to certainty of perfect prediction, in terms of the amount of verification data and the detail of the predictand. Related expressions are developed for the number of effective predictors that may be combined in a given prediction method, and for the fineness of predictand detail that can be forecast. Applications to evaluation of practical forecast problems are discussed by use of examples. Similar treatments are suggested for specification problems. Because of the generality of their derivations, it is believed that these expressions would be useful in other fields, as well as in meteorology. | |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
| title | ON LIMITATIONS TO PREDICTION | |
| type | Journal Paper | |
| journal volume | 14 | |
| journal issue | 4 | |
| journal title | Journal of Meteorology | |
| identifier doi | 10.1175/1520-0469(1957)014<0304:OLTP>2.0.CO;2 | |
| journal fristpage | 304 | |
| journal lastpage | 307 | |
| tree | Journal of Meteorology:;1957:;volume( 014 ):;issue: 004 | |
| contenttype | Fulltext |