Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 2861-2880 of 3043
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Systematic Model Forecast Errors of Surface Cyclones in the NGM and AVN, January 1990
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)Results from a study examining the performance of the nested grid model (NGM) and the aviation run of the global spectral model (AVN) in predicting surface cyclones during January 1990 revealed that the AVN slightly ... -
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Comment on: “A Study of 30 Years of July and August Hourly Precipitation Data for Omaha, Nebraska”
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)No abstract available -
A Decomposition of the Correlation Coefficient and its Use in Analyzing Forecasting Skill
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)Estimates of several components of forecasting skill can be obtained by combining a skill-score decomposition developed by Allan Murphy with techniques for decomposing correlation coefficients that have been employed in ... -
The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF)
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)The U.S. Navy Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is an IBM-AT compatible software package developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Guam. ATCF is designed to assist forecasters with the process ... -
On the Combination of Forecast Probabilities for Consecutive Precipitation Periods
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)The performance of the method of Hughes and Sangster (1979) for combining precipitation probabilities pertaining to standard 12-h forecast periods is examined for 100 stations in the conterminous United States. Precipitation ... -
Judgment and Decision Making in Dynamic Tasks: The Case of Forecasting the Microburst
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)Two studies of microburst forecasting were conducted in order to demonstrate the utility of applying theoretical and methodological concepts from judgment and decision making to meteorology. A hierarchical model of the ... -
Cold Fronts Aloft and the Forecasting of Precipitation and Severe Weather East of the Rocky Mountains
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)Brief descriptions are given of four cases that illustrate the important role that cold fronts aloft (CFA) can play in producing significant weather cast of the Rocky Mountains. In all four cases, the CFA, and its associated ... -
Surface Analysis Over the Oceans—Searching for Sea Truth
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)For the Atlantic storms in ERICA IOP 1?5, NMC operational surface analyses, both manual and automated, were compared with two sets of research analyses prepared later. The positions of cyclone centers agreed within 100 km ... -
Variability in Successive Operational Model Forecasts of Maritime Cyclogenesis
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)The level of variability present in operational model simulations of marine cyclogenesis was examined. Successive forecasts valid for the same 12-h time period of analysed maximum cyclone central pressure fall from the ... -
On Summary Measures of Skill in Rare Event Forecasting Based on Contingency Tables
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)The so-called True Skill Statistic (TSS) and the Heidke Skill Score (S), as used in the context of the contingency, table approach to forecast verification, are compared. It is shown that the TSS approaches the Probability ... -
The Critical Success Index as an Indicator of Warning Skill
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)A form of the critical success index (CSI) is used by the National Weather Service to indicate the value of warnings. This verification statistic assumes that the times when an event was neither expected nor observed are ... -
An Evaluation of Stability Indices for Thunderstorm Prediction in Greater Cyprus
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)The effectiveness of a number of forecasting indices for non-frontal thunderstorm activity has been investigated for the Greater Cyprus area. The indices include the humidity index (HI), the Pickup index (PI), the K-stability ... -
Large-Amplitude Mesoscale Wave Disturbances Within the Intense Midwest Extratropical Cyclone of 15 December 1987
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)On 15 December 1987 several long-lived, large-amplitude mesoscale wave disturbances embedded within a rapidly intensifying extratropical cyclone traversed the Midwest and created life-threatening blizzard conditions. Within ... -
Degradation of the North American Radiosonde Network
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)No abstract available -
An Interactive Method for Estimating Maximum Hailstone Size from Forecast Soundings
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)A diagnostic/prognostic sounding analysis package is presented to aid operational forecasters. First, a diagnostic sounding analysis is shown which computes standard thermodynamic parameters while including a scheme to ... -
Influence of Synoptic Track Aircraft Reconnaissance on JTWC Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)This report examines the impact of synoptic reconnaissance by United States Air Force aircraft on the accuracy of tropical cyclone motion forecasts. Synoptic reconnaissance missions were requested for the purpose of ... -
Precipitation Forecast Quality of the NMC Nested Grid Model According to Synoptic Situation: Case Study for the Upper Midwest
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)Twelve-hour quantitative precipitation forecasts from the National Weather Service National Meteorological Center's nested-grid model are evaluated for 12 stations in the upper Midwest for the period April?July 1987. ... -
Eta Model Precipitation Forecasts for a Period Including Tropical Storm Allison
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)A step-mountain (eta) coordinate limited-area model is being developed at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) to improve forecasts of severe weather and other mesoscale phenomena. Precipitation forecasts are reviewed ... -
Diagnosis of Upper-Level Processes Influencing an Unusually Intense Extratropical Cyclone over Southeast Australia
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)On 1 December 1987, an unusual midlatitude cyclone affected much of southeastern Australia. The storm was characterized by unforced rapid deepening to a near record low (locally) mean sea-level pressure, high winds, ...