Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 2841-2860 of 3043
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A Synoptic Climatology of the Elevated Mixed-Layer Inversion over the Southern Great Plains in Spring. Part III: Relationship to Severe-Storms Climatology
(American Meteorological Society, 1991)This study investigates the relationships between the occurrence of the lid (also known as a type 1 tornado sounding) and the occurrence of severe storms over Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas during the spring season (defined ... -
A Synoptic Climatology of the Elevated Mixed-Layer Inversion over the Southern Great Plains in Spring. Part I: Structure, Dynamics, and Seasonal Evolution
(American Meteorological Society, 1991)A synoptic climatology of the atmospheric conditions associated with the creation of the elevated mixed-layer inversion, or lid, over the southern Great Plains of the U.S. (defined as Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and portions ... -
A Synoptic Climatology of the Elevated Mixed-Layer Inversion over the Southern Great Plains in Spring. Part I: Structure, Dynamics, and Seasonal Evolution
(American Meteorological Society, 1991)A synoptic climatology of the atmospheric conditions associated with the creation of the elevated mixed-layer inversion, or lid, over the southern Great Plains of the U.S. (defined as Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and portions ... -
The Limited-Area Forecast Systems at the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan
(American Meteorological Society, 1991)The Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taipei, Republic of China has entered the era of operational numerical weather prediction with the complete online operations of a Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Limited-Area ... -
Downbursts from Innocuous Clouds: An Example
(American Meteorological Society, 1991)A microburst occurred at Goodland, Kansas, on 4 March 1990. This event was unique in the sense that it occurred at 0348 AM MST (1048 UTC) and produced 14°F (7.8°C) of warming. The environment along the High Plains exhibited ... -
Evaluating the Impact of RAFS Changes on the NGM-Based MOS Guidance
(American Meteorological Society, 1991)In the spring of 1990, the National Meteorological Center (NMC) tested several modifications to the Regional Analysis and Forecast System (RAFS). In order to compare the proposed version of the RAFS to the current operational ... -
Changes to NMC's Regional Analysis and Forecast System
(American Meteorological Society, 1991)The final set of changes to NMC's Regional Analysis and Forecast System (RAFS) is described. The changes include modifications to both the forecast model and the analysis model, as well as development of a Regional Data ... -
Evaluation of the National Meteorological Center's Medium Range Forecast Model Precipitation Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 1991)Precipitation forecasts by the National Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) model are evaluated for the period 1 March 1987 to 30 March 1989. During 1988, the MRF model's tendency to forecast too much ... -
Numerical Simulation of an Explosively Deepening Cyclone over the North Atlantic that was Unaffected by Concurrent Surface Energy Fluxes
(American Meteorological Society, 1991)The effect of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes on explosive cyclogenesis has been found to be quite variable. Sensitivity tests reveal little or no influence in some cases and dramatic effects in others. However, ... -
A Persistence Climatology for Interior and Coastal Southern New England
(American Meteorological Society, 1991)One method of evaluating forecast skill is to compare probability forecasts of temperature and precipitation to a ?persistence climatology? (CLIMO) for a given location. In the absence of such data, forecasters at Central ... -
Human Factors Psychology in the Support of Forecasting: The Design of Advanced Meteorological Workstations
(American Meteorological Society, 1991)Advanced Meteorological Processing (AMP) systems will provide a workstation environment to support the activities of operational forecasters and research meteorologists. AMP system research and development projects are ... -
A Real-Time System for Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Storm Surges
(American Meteorological Society, 1991)The depth-averaged, numerical storm-surge model developed by Hubbert et al. (1990) has been configured to provide a stand-alone system to forecast tropical cyclone storm surges. The atmospheric surface pressure and surface ... -
Why Do Forecasts for “Near Normal” Often Fail?
(American Meteorological Society, 1991)It has been observed by many that skill of categorical forecasts, when decomposed into the contributions from each category separately, tends to be low, if not absent or negative, in the ?near normal? (N) category. We have ... -
Evaluation of Vertical Motion: Past, Present, and Future
(American Meteorological Society, 1991)The potential impact of gridded output from numerical models on operational forecasting of vertical motion is examined. A review of historical techniques for operational vertical motion evaluation is presented. An attempt ... -
Surface Wind Convergence as a Short-Term Predictor of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning at Kennedy Space Center
(American Meteorological Society, 1991)Cloud-to-ground lightning is a significant forecast problem at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in Florida. In this study, cloud-to-ground lightning is related in time and space to surface convergence for 244 days during the ... -
On the Interpretation of Single-Doppler Velocity Patterns within Severe Thunderstorms
(American Meteorological Society, 1991)Although the flow field within a severe thunderstorm is complex, it is possible to simulate the basic features using simple analytical flow models (such as uniform flow, axisymmetric rotation, axisymmetric divergence). ... -
An Analysis of a Mesocyclone–Induced Tornado Occurrence in Northern California
(American Meteorological Society, 1991)One documented F2 tornado and several other unconfirmed tornadoes were reported in California's Sacramento Valley on 24 September 1986. The synoptic pattern which occurred that day was one long-recognized by California ... -
Correlating Lightning to Severe Local Storms in the Northeastern United States
(American Meteorological Society, 1991)Two tornado events and an intense downburst episode were investigated in an attempt to relate cloud-to-ground lightning rates with the occurrence of severe local storms. The State University of New York at Albany lightning ... -
Corrigendum
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)Correction to Volume 5, Issue 3, pages 527-528. -
An Example of the Importance of Ship Observations
(American Meteorological Society, 1990)The impact of one ship observation on the National Meteorological Center's (NMC) North Atlantic surface pressure analysis, forecast models, and various forecasts is discussed. In addition, the resources available to surface ...