Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 2141-2160 of 3043
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Skill of Medium-Range Forecasts over the Indian Monsoon Region Using Different Parameterizations of Deep Convection
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)The operational global spectral model of the National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) at T80 resolution and 18 vertical levels has been used to study the skill of medium-range forecasts using three ... -
Precipitation Regimes during Cold-Season Central U.S. Inverted Trough Cases. Part I: Synoptic Climatology and Composite Study
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)This paper is the first of two papers that examines the organization of the precipitation field in central U.S. cold-season cyclones involving inverted troughs. The first portion of the study examines the varying precipitation ... -
Modulation of ENSO-Based Long-Lead Outlooks of Southwestern U.S. Winter Precipitation by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)Seasonal predictability of winter precipitation anomalies across the U.S. Southwest derived from knowledge of antecedent, late-summer Pacific Ocean surface temperatures is examined empirically. Previous studies have shown ... -
Improving the Detection and Tracking of Tropical Cyclones in Atmospheric General Circulation Models
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)Dynamical seasonal forecasts of tropical storm frequency require robust and efficient algorithms for detection and tracking of tropical storms in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). Tropical storms are generally ... -
Verification of High-Resolution RAMS Forecasts over East-Central Florida during the 1999 and 2000 Summer Months
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)This paper presents an objective and subjective verification of a high-resolution configuration of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) over east-central Florida during the 1999 and 2000 summer months. Centered ... -
Reply
(American Meteorological Society, 2002) -
Comments on “Satellite Observations of a Severe Supercell Thunderstorm on 24 July 2000 Made during the GOES-11 Science Test”
(American Meteorological Society, 2002) -
Two Years of Operational Hurricane Synoptic Surveillance
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)In 1997, the National Hurricane Center and the Hurricane Research Division began operational synoptic surveillance missions with the Gulfstream IV-SP jet aircraft to improve the numerical guidance for hurricanes that ... -
Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation during the Southwest Monsoon
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)The skill and potential value of fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) ensembles are evaluated for short-range (24 h) probabilistic quantitative ... -
Properties of the Convection Scheme in NCEP's Eta Model that Affect Forecast Sounding Interpretation
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)The impact of parameterized convection on Eta Model forecast soundings is examined. The Betts?Miller?Janji? parameterization used in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model introduces characteristic ... -
Modeling Maximum Hail Size in Alberta Thunderstorms
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)A one-dimensional steady-state cloud model was combined with a time-dependent hail growth model to predict the maximum hailstone size on the ground. Model runs were based on 160 proximity soundings recorded within the ... -
A Lightning Prediction Index that Utilizes GPS Integrated Precipitable Water Vapor
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)The primary weather forecast challenge at the Cape Canaveral Air Station and Kennedy Space Center is lightning. This paper describes a statistical approach that combines integrated precipitable water vapor (IPWV) data from ... -
Near-Real-Time Applications of a Mesoscale Analysis System to Complex Terrain
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)Several mesoscale data analysis systems are reviewed, of which one is then adapted and applied to the complex terrain of northwest Utah and the western United States. The analysis system relies on the simple, but computationally ... -
A Rocky Mountain Storm. Part I: The Blizzard—Kinematic Evolution and the Potential for High-Resolution Numerical Forecasting of Snowfall
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)Over the 3-day period of 24?26 October 1997, a powerful winter storm was the cause of two exceptional weather phenomena: 1) blizzard conditions from Wyoming to southern New Mexico along the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains ... -
Recognition of Negative Mesoscale Factors for Severe-Weather Potential: A Case Study
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)The case of 7?8 June 1998 in eastern New Mexico and western Texas is used to illustrate the challenge of recognizing possible negative effects created by mesoscale processes. In this case, a region of cloud-covered cool ... -
Weather Radar Coverage over the Contiguous United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)Terrain and radar beam-elevation data are used to examine the spatial coverage provided by the national operational network of Doppler weather radars. This information is of importance to a wide variety of users, and ... -
The Evolution of a Hurricane–Trough Interaction from a Satellite Perspective
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)A case study is presented that describes the interaction of Hurricane Bertha (1996) with an extratropical upper-tropospheric trough shortly before the hurricane's landfall in North Carolina. This case study illustrates the ... -
Unexpected Warming Induced by Foehn Winds in the Lee of the Smoky Mountains
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)On 2 January 1999, a southeasterly foehn wind produced a narrow band of temperatures up to 10°C (18°F) warmer than the surrounding area in the central Great Tennessee Valley on the northwest side of the Smoky Mountains. ... -
An Ensemble Analysis of Forecast Errors Related to Floating Point Performance
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)The dynamical core of the Mesoscale Compressible Community (MC2) model is described. Ensemble forecast techniques for high-resolution mesoscale simulations are applied to assess the impact of floating point optimization, ... -
The Application of a Simple Method for the Verification of Weather Forecasts and Seasonal Variations in Forecast Accuracy
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)The evaluation of weather forecast accuracy has always been a difficult subject to address for many reasons. In this study, a simple semiobjective method is used to examine the accuracy of zone forecasts issued by the ...