Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 2121-2140 of 3043
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Airborne Asian Dust: Case Study of Long-Range Transport and Implications for the Detection of Volcanic Ash
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)The transport of fine-grained Asian dust from its source (e.g., the Gobi Desert, Mongolia) to North America is a common springtime phenomenon. Because of its chemical composition (silicon, iron, aluminum, and calcium) and ... -
Parameterized Updraft Mass Flux as a Predictor of Convective Intensity
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Parameterized updraft mass flux, available as a unique predictive field from the Kain?Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization, is presented as a potentially valuable predictor of convective intensity. The KF scheme is ... -
Daily Precipitation Forecasting in Dakar Using the NCEP–NCAR Reanalyses
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)In order to predict the daily rain amount at Dakar at 1?5-day lead times, 65 thermodynamical and dynamical indices are computed at each grid point for the area 15°S?30°N, 30°W?30°E. The data used are NCEP?NCAR reanalyses ... -
Statistical, 5-Day Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Derived from Climatology and Persistence
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Tropical cyclone track forecasting has improved recently to the point at which extending the official forecasts of both track and intensity to 5 days is being considered at the National Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon ... -
IFPS and the Future of the National Weather Service
(American Meteorological Society, 2003) -
Summertime Surges over the Gulf of California: Aspects of Their Climatology, Mean Structure, and Evolution from Radiosonde, NCEP Reanalysis, and Rainfall Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)This paper describes aspects of summertime northward surges of low-level moisture over the Gulf of California, based on 9 yr (1980?88) of radiosonde observations and also from NCEP reanalyses. These events are usually ... -
Assessing the Skill of Operational Atlantic Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Since 1984, W. Gray of Colorado State University and a team of researchers have been issuing seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts for the North Atlantic Ocean. Prior to this, little work had been done in the area of long-term ... -
GPS Dropwindsonde Wind Profiles in Hurricanes and Their Operational Implications
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)The recent development of the global positioning system (GPS) dropwindsonde has allowed the wind and thermodynamic structure of the hurricane eyewall to be documented with unprecedented accuracy and resolution. In an attempt ... -
Ensemble Experiments on Numerical Weather Prediction Error and Uncertainty for a North Pacific Forecast Failure
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)An intense maritime cyclone off the northwest coast of North America during 9?14 February 1999 was remarkable in the repeated inability of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to forecast its evolution. Each day during ... -
Analog Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Australian Region
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian basin are predicted by an analog ensemble forecast model. It is self-adapting in its search of optimal ensemble members from historic cyclone tracks by creating a metric that ... -
Model Representation of Freezing and Melting Precipitation: Implications for Winter Weather Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)During episodes of sustained moderate or heavy precipitation in conjunction with near-freezing temperatures and weak horizontal temperature advection, the latent heat released (absorbed) by the freezing (melting) of falling ... -
Rainfall Simulation Associated with Typhoon Herb (1996) near Taiwan. Part I: The Topographic Effect
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)In this study, a series of numerical experiments are performed to examine the ability of a high-resolution mesoscale model to predict the track, intensity change, and detailed mesoscale precipitation distributions associated ... -
Impact of Verification Grid-Box Size on Warm-Season QPF Skill Measures
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)A 10-km-grid-spacing version of NCEP's Eta Model was used to simulate 11 warm-season convective systems occurring over the U.S. upper midwest. Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from the model valid for 6-h periods ... -
A Climatology of Thundersnow Events over the Contiguous United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)A ?climatology? (climatological description of spatial, temporal, and synoptic characteristics) of snow events with thunder is presented for the contiguous United States. Based upon 30 yr of 3-hourly reports from 204 ... -
The Influence of Terrain on the Severe Weather Distribution across Interior Eastern New York and Western New England
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)Forecasters have surmised that prominent mountain ranges and river valleys in eastern New York and western New England (e.g., Hudson and Mohawk River valleys; Adirondack, Catskill, Green, and Berkshire Mountains) affect ... -
A Multiscale Observational Case Study of the Development of an Isolated High Plains Tornadic Supercell
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)On 21 May 1995, a strong tornado developed with an isolated supercell in southwestern Nebraska. Large-scale conditions were not supportive of a tornadic thunderstorm outbreak; however, evidence suggests significant mesoscale ... -
Rainfall Characteristics Associated with the Remnants of Tropical Storm Helene in Upstate South Carolina
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)A description is given of rainfall characteristics associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall on the panhandle of Florida and moved through parts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina ... -
Storm-Scale Numerical Rainfall Prediction for Five Precipitating Events over France: On the Importance of the Initial Humidity Field
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)This paper presents results of numerical experiments on five precipitating events: two cases of convective systems over the northern French plains that induced localized flooding, two cases of quasi-stationary systems over ... -
Comparison of Three Cloud Forecast Schemes with In Situ Aircraft Measurements
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)In situ aircraft measurements, collected during three research projects, are used to compare forecasts from three explicit cloud schemes. These schemes include the Canadian operational Sundqvist (SUND) scheme, the Tremblay ... -
Short-Term Numerical Forecasting of a Shallow Storms Complex Using Bistatic and Single-Doppler Radar Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2002)A new method based on four-dimensional variational radar data assimilation into a cloud-resolving model has been developed for nowcasting purposes. This method allows for the retrieval of the model prognostic variables ...