Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 2081-2100 of 3043
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Improved Results for Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)As a follow-up to a recent paper by the authors in which various methodologies for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting were compared, it is shown here that the skill scores for linear regression and logistic ... -
The Environment of Warm-Season Elevated Thunderstorms Associated with Heavy Rainfall over the Central United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Twenty-one warm-season heavy-rainfall events in the central United States produced by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that developed above and north of a surface boundary are examined to define the environmental ... -
Subjective Verification of Numerical Models as a Component of a Broader Interaction between Research and Operations
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Systematic subjective verification of precipitation forecasts from two numerical models is presented and discussed. The subjective verification effort was carried out as part of the 2001 Spring Program, a seven-week ... -
Evaluation of the High-Resolution Model Forecasts over the Taiwan Area during GIMEX
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)During the 2001 Green Island Mesoscale Experiment (GIMEX), the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University?NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) was run at a horizontal resolution of 5 km twice a day and forced by initial and ... -
The Diagnosis of Vertical Motion within Dry Intrusions
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Dry intrusions play an important role in modulating precipitation patterns both in the midlatitudes and in the Tropics. The lifting of unsaturated air aloft often leads to destabilization and the enhancement of precipitation ... -
Optimization of Value of Aerodrome Forecasts
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Prediction of short-term variations of vital boundary layer conditions at airports, such as visibility and cloud base, is important to the safe and economic operation of airlines. Results of an experiment involving groups ... -
Lake Breezes in Southern Ontario and Their Relation to Tornado Climatology
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imagery is used to demonstrate the development of lake-breeze boundaries in southern Ontario under different synoptic conditions. The orientation of the gradient ... -
Short-Range (0–48 h) Numerical Prediction of Convective Occurrence, Mode, and Location
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)A verification of high-resolution (6-km grid spacing) short-range (0?48 h) numerical model forecasts of warm-season convective occurrence, mode, and location was conducted over the Lake Michigan region. All available days ... -
MOS-Based Precipitation Forecasts for River Basins
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Statistical interpretation models of the Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement International/Limited Area Modelling in Central Europe (ALADIN/LACE) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model outputs have been ... -
The Impact of the Land Surface Physics in the Operational NCEP Eta Model on Simulating the Diurnal Cycle: Evaluation and Testing Using Oklahoma Mesonet Data
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)On 31 January 1996, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP/EMC) implemented a state-of-the-art land surface parameterization in the operational Eta Model. The purpose of this ... -
Evaluating High-Resolution Model Forecasts of European Winter Storms by Use of Satellite and Radar Observations
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)The forecasting performance of the operational Lokal Modell (LM) of the German Weather Service (DWD) is evaluated for two severe winter storms that crossed central Europe in December 1999. Synthetic satellite images ... -
An Analysis of the Impact of a Split-Front Rainband on Appalachian Cold-Air Damming
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Appalachian cold-air damming (CAD) is characterized by the development of a cool, stable air mass that is advected southwestward along the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains by low-level ageostrophic flow. Operational ... -
Diagnosis of a Polar Low Warm Core Utilizing the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Data from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) are used to examine a polar low that occurred in the Labrador Sea on 17?18 March 2000. During its 40-h lifetime, the polar low was observed three times by AMSU, which ... -
Airflow and Precipitation Structure of Two Leading Stratiform Mesoscale Convective Systems Determined from Operational Datasets
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)An analysis of the airflow and precipitation structure of two leading stratiform (LS) mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is presented. Leading stratiform systems are defined as linear MCSs that consist of a convective ... -
Weather Swap Pricing and the Optimal Size for Medium-Range Forecast Ensembles
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Weather swap pricing involves predicting the mean temperature for the current month with the highest possible accuracy. The more days of skillful forecasts that are available, the better the monthly mean can be predicted. ... -
A Rocky Mountain Storm. Part II: The Forest Blowdown over the West Slope of the Northern Colorado Mountains—Observations, Analysis, and Modeling
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)A devastating winter storm affected the Rocky Mountain states over the 3-day period of 24?26 October 1997. Blizzard conditions persisted over the foothills and adjoining plains from Wyoming to southern New Mexico, with ... -
An Objective Climatology, Classification Scheme, and Assessment of Sensible Weather Impacts for Appalachian Cold-Air Damming
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)The geostrophic adjustment process for a rotating, stratified atmosphere in the presence of an orographic barrier may be manifest as a phenomenon known as ?cold-air damming? (CAD). The degree of blocking by an orographic ... -
Climatological Estimates of Local Daily Tornado Probability for the United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)An estimate is made of the probability of an occurrence of a tornado day near any location in the contiguous 48 states for any time during the year. Gaussian smoothers in space and time have been applied to the observed ... -
A Statistical Sea-Breeze Prediction Algorithm for Charleston, South Carolina
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)A simple and useful technique for prediction of sea breezes, based on readily available wind vector and air temperature predictions from synoptic models in conjunction with observed coastal sea surface temperatures, is ... -
The Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Precipitation in Oregon and Washington
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)The Madden?Julian oscillation (MJO) is the primary mode of large-scale intraseasonal variability in the Tropics. Previous work has explored the influences of the MJO on atmospheric circulation anomalies over the North ...