Weather and Forecasting: Recent submissions
Now showing items 2061-2080 of 3043
-
Multiple-Timescale Intercomparison of Two Radar Products and Rain Gauge Observations over the Arkansas–Red River Basin
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)A detailed intercomparison was performed for the period January 1998?June 1999 of three different sets of rainfall observations over the watershed covered by the National Weather Service Arkansas?Red Basin River Forecast ... -
Forecasts of Valley Circulations Using the Terrain-Following and Step-Mountain Vertical Coordinates in the Meso-Eta Model
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)The nonhydrostatic version of the NCEP Meso-Eta Model is used to perform simulations that differ by only the vertical coordinate to determine the differences in forecasted valley circulations associated with the step-mountain ... -
Predicting East Coast Winter Storm Frequencies from Midtropospheric Geopotential Height Patterns
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Relationships between a previously developed U.S. East Coast winter storm (ECWS) climatology and atmospheric circulation patterns derived from the NCEP?NCAR reanalysis data during 1958?97 have been investigated. Composites ... -
Long-Range Statistical Forecasting of Ice Severity in the Beaufort–Chukchi Sea
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Interannual variations in Beaufort Sea summer ice conditions influence a wide range of socioeconomic activities, including merchant shipping in the Beaufort Sea and subsistence lifestyles on the Alaskan North Slope. Each ... -
Verification of Mesoscale Numerical Weather Forecasts in Mountainous Terrain for Application to Avalanche Prediction
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Two high-resolution, real-time, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are verified against case study observations to quantify their accuracy and skill in the mountainous terrain of western Canada. These models, run ... -
Maximum Potential Intensities of Tropical Cyclones near Isla Socorro, Mexico
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)The maximum potential intensity (MPI) of a tropical cyclone represents a theoretical upper limit to the strength of the storm imposed by the laws of physics and the energy available to the system in the atmosphere and the ... -
Forecasting September Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)September is the most active month for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity with about 50% of all hurricane activity occurring during this month. Utilizing National Centers for Environmental Prediction?National Center ... -
Large-Scale Characteristics of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) databases are employed to examine the large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. ... -
The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Challenges, Current Understanding, and Future Directions
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)A significant number of tropical cyclones move into the midlatitudes and transform into extratropical cyclones. This process is generally referred to as extratropical transition (ET). During ET a cyclone frequently produces ... -
Status and Outlook of Operational Satellite Precipitation Algorithms for Extreme-Precipitation Events
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Flash floods are among the most devastating natural weather hazards in the United States, causing an average of more than 225 deaths and $4 billion in property damage annually. As a result, prediction of flash floods in ... -
One Hundred Inches in One Hundred Hours: Evolution of a Wasatch Mountain Winter Storm Cycle
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Synoptic, orographic, and lake-effect precipitation processes during a major winter storm cycle over the Wasatch Mountains of northern Utah are examined using radar imagery, high-density surface data, and precipitation ... -
Cold Pools and MCS Propagation: Forecasting the Motion of Downwind-Developing MCSs
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)The primary factors that affect the direction of propagation and overall movement of surface-based mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are discussed. It is shown that although propagation is indeed related to the strength ... -
Hurricane Paine (1986) Grazes the High Terrain of the Baja California Peninsula
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)On 1 October 1986, two NOAA WP-3D aircraft were flown in Hurricane Paine as it passed just south of the Baja California Peninsula, providing an opportunity to observe how the category-1 hurricane responded to the presence ... -
Impacts of ENSO on Snowfall Frequencies in the United States
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Changes in the frequency of occurrence of snowfall during El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are presented for the continental United States. This study is motivated by the need to improve winter climate forecasts ... -
Operational Ensemble Cloud Model Forecasts: Some Preliminary Results
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)From 15 July through 30 September of 2001, an ensemble cloud-scale model was run for the Storm Prediction Center on a daily basis. Each ensemble run consisted of 78 members whose initial conditions were derived from the ... -
Forecasting Maximum and Minimum Temperatures by Statistical Interpretation of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)The inability of a general circulation model (GCM) to predict the surface weather parameters accurately necessitates statistical interpretation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model output. Here a system for forecasting ... -
Evaluating Forecasters' Rules of Thumb: A Study of d(prog)/dt
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Forecasters often develop rules of thumb for adjusting model guidance. Ideally, before use, these rules of thumb should be validated through a careful comparison of model forecasts and observations over a large sample. ... -
Sensitivity of Precipitation Forecast Skill Scores to Bilinear Interpolation and a Simple Nearest-Neighbor Average Method on High-Resolution Verification Grids
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)Grid transformations are common postprocessing procedures used in numerical weather prediction to transfer a forecast field from one grid to another. This paper investigates the statistical effects of two different ... -
Distributions-Oriented Verification of Probability Forecasts for Small Data Samples
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)The distributions-oriented approach to forecast verification uses an estimate of the joint distribution of forecasts and observations to evaluate forecast quality. However, small verification data samples can produce ... -
Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility Utilizing High-Density Surface Weather Observations
(American Meteorological Society, 2003)An automated statistical system that utilizes regional high-density surface observations to forecast low ceiling and visibility events in the upper Midwest is presented. The system is based solely upon surface observations ...