Joint Probability Method in Barrier Island Systems

Abstract

The joint probability method is modified to extend its application to flood level frequency determination for barrier island systems. The method developed accounts for the physical mechanism of barrier overtopping and is more economical than a direct statistical approach. The method involves an investigation of the dependency of hurricane surge at locations at and behind the barrier island chain on central pressure depression as well as the dependency of total stilled water elevation on astronomic tide and hurricane surge. To complete the method, a convolution approach for combining astronomical tide and hurricane surge consistent with overtopping and valid for large tidal ranges is presented.