Reliability-Based Loss Functions Applied to Manitoba Hydro Energy Generation System

Abstract

One of the major issues in planning the operation of reservoirs for energy generation is uncertainty in future reservoir inflows and energy demands. A reliability programming model addresses input uncertainty. This paper demonstrates the practical application of this model for the Manitoba Hydro energy generation system. The model evaluates the optimal reliability (probability of meeting system energy demand) by balancing the total benefits accrued from energy generation with the economic losses incurred from the decrease in reliability, through incorporation of a loss function in the model formulation. A four-step simulation algorithm is proposed to derive the loss function, a relationship between the reliability and its associated economic losses. The sensitivity of the operating policy computed by the reliability programming model for different loss functions is presented to demonstrate the model's ability to perform an explicit reliability-benefit analysis in medium-term planning for hydropower systems.