Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Libya's Water Supply System

Abstract

This paper summarizes the methods and results of economic analyses performed for the agency responsible for water supply development and operation in Libya in support of decisions regarding further investments in water supply systems in their country. This study identified least-cost combinations of investments in Libya's Great Man-made River Project (GMRP) together with desalination that would meet specified water demand targets at various demand sites in the country. The GMRP is one of the largest civil works projects in the world, involving the pumping of ancient ground water from the Sahara Desert and transporting it hundreds of kilometers to the coast of Libya where demands for water exist. The paper outlines the optimization models used in these analyses and presents some interesting outcomes that warrant additional studies focusing on capacity expansion over time. Given the investments already made in the GMRP, only under most optimistic cost scenarios does desalination appear to be an economically efficient expansion alternative and then only for a limited range of water demands.