Pressure and Flow Uncertainty in Water Systems

Abstract

In the monitoring of water distribution systems, the inaccuracy of input data contributes greatly to the inaccuracy of system state estimates calculated from them. It is important, therefore, that the system operators are given not only the values of flows and pressures in the network at any instant of time but also that they have some indication of how reliable these values are. The quantification of the inaccuracy of calculated flows and pressures caused by the input data uncertainty is called here confidence limit analysis. Several confidence limit analysis algorithms are presented. These include a Monte Carlo simulation method, an optimization method, and a sensitivity matrix technique. The performance of these algorithms is assessed in terms of their suitability for real‐time control or design stage applications. Results are presented for a realistic test network.