Model for Crop Allocation in Rural Floodplains

Abstract

A model for rural land‐use allocation in terms of areas allocated to floodwater storage and types of crops grown is presented. The model integrates a dynamic programming formulation with a procedure for recognizing variation in the susceptibility of crops to flood damage with the age of the plant, the possibility of more than one damaging flood in a single growing season, and the possible variation in flood frequency over the growing season. The existence of multiple annual floods is considered by incorporating the expected damage prior to a second flood in a single season into the expected damage calculation for later flood events. Time‐dependent susceptibility to damage and variation in flood frequency is handled through the calculation of the joint probability of a particular stage of growth and flood event in discrete intervals in the growing season.