Multizonal Simulation Model of Population

Abstract

This paper describes a model to forecast population categorized by sex, five‐year age groups, and zones. The region under consideration is the Kansai region in Japan, which is disaggregated into 120 zones. Population is estimated as the sum of the closed population and the net social increase. The total net social increase for each zone is estimated on the basis of such variables in each zone as: (1) Demand for labor force determined by industrial developments; (2) increment in labor force; and (3) increment in housing stock. The social increase by sex and age groups is estimated by using the migration rate by sex and age groups (migration pattern) for each zone. One of the main characteristics of the model is that the migration pattern for each zone is taken as one of the endogenous variables which vary according to the development of various socioeconomic activities in each zone. The final test of the constructed model has been performed, and it has been confirmed that the model has sufficient validity. Some of the simulation results are also presented.