Modeling Airport Operations Affected by a Large-Scale Disruption

Abstract

This paper deals with modeling the operations of an airport affected by a large-scale disruptive event, which in this case is considered to be the persistent heavy snowfall. Under such circumstances, the processes taking place at the affected airport are analyzed as two interrelated queuing systems. The first system represents the snowfall and its accumulation in the airport airside area (runway(s), taxiway(s), and apron/gate(s) complex), which affect the airport service rate, i.e., capacity. The other system represents handling of the aircraft/flights at such affected capacity. The deterministic queuing model is used for modeling both systems. The model of the snowfall uses input such as the intensity of snowfall, the snow-melting rate, the “critical” depth of snow when its removal should start, and the capacity and tactics of the snow removal. The output from the model embraces the accumulation of snow in the airport airside area, depending on time. The model of handling the aircraft/flights uses inputs such as the snow accumulation, the characteristics of the scheduled arrival and departure demand, and the corresponding service rates, i.e., capacities, affected by the snowfall. The output from the model embraces the queues, delays, and cancellations of the affected aircraft/flights, and the related costs imposed on the airport, airlines, users-air passengers, and society. The model could be used for more efficient and effective planning of dealing with the snowfall and/or ice rain at airports, estimation of costs of the affected airports, airlines, and air passengers for different scenarios of a given snowfall disruptive event, and sensitivity analysis of these costs regarding changes of the main influencing factors.