Evaluating the Safety Risk of Narrow Medians Using Reliability Analysis

Abstract

In British Columbia, many highways are located in mountainous terrain and the costs of highway construction in these areas are high. One method of controlling construction costs is narrow medians but the safety consequences of using narrow medians were never determined. Recent research on safety in geometric design has focused on establishing quantitative relationships between collisions and cross-sectional elements using collision prediction models (CPMs) and collision modification factors (CMFs). In some situations, such as the use of narrow medians, it is difficult to find CPMs and CMFs that adequately describe the design scenario. In other instances, it is difficult to measure the safety in terms of collision reduction because of a lack of data or difficulty isolating the impact of a single design element on collision frequency. In these situations, reliability analysis can be used to evaluate the risk associated with a particular design feature. Reliability analysis is not intended as an alternative to quantify safety using collision frequency but represents a complementary method of measuring safety in terms of risk. In this paper, reliability analysis was completed on a series of horizontal curves with varying horizontal sight distance restrictions and the probability of being unable to stop within the available sight distance was calculated. The results of the study found that narrow medians combined with tight horizontal curves did not provide sufficient sight distance that vehicles would be expected to stop if an object was in a vehicle’s path. The analysis was applied to a case study of two constrained alignments in mountainous terrain of British Columbia.