Stochastic Representation of a Hypereutrophic Lake

Abstract

Variability in total phosphorus concentrations in a small hypereutrophic lake are represented by a stochastic modification to the basic Vollenweider model. Uncertainties arising from the definition of initial conditions and a lumped white noise parameter are used to project probability distributions of mean in‐lake total phosphorus concentrations. The resulting distributions of mean phosphorus values are modified by consideration of uncertainties associated with monitoring programs to permit comparison with the monitoring results. The model is calibrated using the results of an intensive monitoring program which included nearly five hundred total phosphorus observations from Crest Lake in southeastern Louisiana. The model is also compared against the results of a routine monitoring program. Calibration results indicate the potential usefulness of this modeling approach.