Simulation Model to Forecast Project Completion Time

Abstract

Project cost is most sensitive to its schedule. The construction project environment comprising dynamic, uncertain, but predictable, variables such as weather, space congestion, workmen absenteeism, etc., is changing continuously, affecting activity durations. The reliability of project duration forecast can be enhanced by an explicit analysis to determine the variation in activity durations caused by the dynamic variables. A computer model is used to simulate the expected occurrence of the uncertainty variables. From the information that is collected normally for a progress update of the tactical plan and by simulating the project environment, the combined impact of the uncertainty variables is predicted for each progress period. By incorporating the combined impact in the duration estimates of each activity, the new activity duration distribution is generated. From these activity duration distributions, the probability of achieving the original project completion time and of completing the project at any other time is computed.