Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Wave Power Technology in Canada

Abstract

Three individual wave power generation technologies were studied and evaluated using multicriteria decision analysis through the use of the PROMETHEE method. To evaluate the three technologies, data were collected from previously performed experimental testing on the performance of each wave power generation technology. These data were used to feed into seven different criteria; namely the capacity factor, rated power, capital cost, operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, cost of electricity (COE) for a 10 year payback, maturity, and survivability. The associated data and criteria were used to determine the optimal technology. The results from the Decision Lab modeling ranked the Wave Dragon, AquaBuOY, and Pelamis technologies as 1, 2, and 3, respectively, for all three locations: Tofino/Ucluelet, Hibernia Oil Platform, and St. John's, Newfoundland. A sensitivity analysis of the threshold values determined for the baseline modeling indicated that the original ranking was essentially unaffected when the threshold values were modified (increased and decreased). The weights of the criterion were individually adjusted to evaluate any change in ranking order. A sizable increase in weighting of greater than 40% of any one criterion (while the others were weighed equally) resulted in a change of the overall ranking order of the three technologies. Final weightings on each of the criterion were assigned with preference on rated power, COE, and maturity stage. All other criteria were weighted equally and like the baseline modeling output, the results of the model ranked Wave Dragon, AquaBuOY, and Pelamis from most favorable to least favorable for all three of the locations analyzed.