Probabilistic Inverse Simulation and Its Application in Vehicle Accident Reconstruction

Abstract

Inverse simulation is an inverse process of direct simulation. It determines unknown input variables of the direct simulation for a given set of simulation output variables. Uncertainties usually exist, making it difficult to solve inverse simulation problems. The objective of this research is to account for uncertainties in inverse simulation in order to produce high confidence in simulation results. The major approach is the use of the maximum probability density function (PDF), which determines not only unknown deterministic input variables but also the realizations of random input variables. Both types of variables are solved on the condition that the joint probability density of all the random variables is maximum. The proposed methodology is applied to a traffic accident reconstruction problem where the simulation output (accident consequences) is known and the simulation input (velocities of the vehicle at the beginning of crash) is sought.