Impact of Manufacturing Variability on Combustor Liner Durability

Abstract

This paper presents a probability-based systems-level approach for assessing the impact of manufacturing variability on combustor liner durability. Simplified models are used to link combustor life, liner temperature variability, and the effects of manufacturing variability. A probabilistic analysis is then applied to the simplified models to estimate the combustor life distribution. The typical combustor life was found to be approximately 20% less than the estimate life using deterministic methods for these combustors, and the probability that a randomly selected combustor will fail earlier than expected using deterministic methods is approximately 80%. The application of a sensitivity analysis to a surrogate model for the life identified the leading drivers of the minimum combustor life and the typical combustor life as the material property variability and the circumferential variability of turbulent mixing rates, respectively.