Uncertainty Analysis in Quantitative Risk Assessment

Abstract

Of the quantitative approaches applied to inservice inspection, failure modes, effects,criticality analysis (FMECA) methodology is recommended. FMECA can provide a straightforward illustration of how risk can be used to prioritize components for inspection (ASME, 1991). But, at present, it has two limitations. One is that it cannot be used in the situation where components have multiple failure modes. The other is that it cannot be used in the situation where the uncertainties in the data of components have nonuniform distributions. In engineering practice, these two situations exist in many cases. In this paper, two methods based on fuzzy set theory are presented to treat these problems. The methods proposed here can be considered as a supplement to FMECA, thus extending its range of applicability.