Probabilistic Analysis of Bridge Collapse during Ship Collisions Based on Reliability Theory

Abstract

Calculating the collapse probability of large and complex bridges during ship collisions by using reliability theory is an inevitable trend in the development of risk assessment for ship-bridge collisions. On the basis of reliability theory and by combining VC + + with ANSYS general finite element software, we develop a program for computing the reliability of bridges during ship collisions by the ANSYS and response surface method. The collapse probability and reliability sensitivity index of the Jialing River Huanghuayuan Bridge during ship collisions are calculated by the program. Results show the following: (1) the pier collapse probability with ship collisions is greater when the water level of the bridge area is at the normal level of 174 m; (2) the density, ship-collision velocity, ship-collision angle, and concrete compressive strength are the main factors that affect bridge collapse probability during ship collisions.