Prediction of Truck Type Choice under Strict Overloading Enforcement

Abstract

An analytical model was developed to predict the variety of truck type choice under strict overloading enforcement. It is assumed that the truck loadage distribution of the whole truck fleet is consistent with the shipment size distribution of the highway network and the offsets of truck’s maximum loadage are relevant to the enforcement bounds. The choice decision of truck types was modeled using a discrete choice formulation with variable choice sets conditioned by the shipment size and the truck loadage. In the case study of the Highway Overloading Research Project in Anhui originated by the World Bank, the result indicates that type 2-S2 will become the most prevailing truck configuration instead of type SU2 in the future with the overloading enforcement to be taken effectively. The result was proved by the practice in Anhui.