Methodology for Combining Coastal Design-Flood Levels and Sea-Level Rise Projections

Abstract

Design-flood levels with associated exceedance probabilities are usually determined for coastal flood protection projects. Rising sea level introduces another design feature that needs to be combined with the design-flood level. However, most sea-level projections do not have exceedance probabilities that can be used in conjunction with the design flood to obtain total flood levels. This paper shows how to combine design-flood levels with sea-level rise projections that have exceedance probabilities, such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, to obtain total elevations at desired exceedance probabilities over particular intervals.