Evaluation of Existing Models for Prediction of Hurricane Evacuation Response Curves

Abstract

Effective planning for a hurricane evacuation can significantly contribute to its success. One important planning component is the prediction of an evacuation timing response curve with different policies under consideration. For this purpose, different mathematical models have been developed. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of the most common type of evacuation timing model (S-curves), as well as the more recently developed sequential logit model. Historical evacuation data from four past storms (Hugo, Andrew, Opal, and Fran) is used for this evaluation. Results illustrate that neither model provides consistent prediction accuracy, suggesting the need for improved response curve prediction capability.