Extrapolation for Future Maximum Load Statistics

Abstract

The use of short-term load data to extrapolate or project remote future maximum load has been practiced in structural design code development and/or calibration. However, this approach has not been adequately evaluated or validated because of the absence of long-term data, which is important for the structures’ safety governed by these codes. In this paper, the application of such extrapolations to highway bridge design is studied by taking advantage of available long-term truck weight data obtained from the weigh-in-motion technique. A new extrapolation method is proposed from the understanding of the importance of the load probability distribution’s high tail. This approach significantly reduces the mathematical length of the extrapolation/projection and thus increases its reliability. Also presented in this paper are application examples. In addition, the extrapolation process proposed is evaluated with quantitative indexes. The application of a temporal extrapolation/projection can now be evaluated by using these indexes for its reliability and appropriateness.