Gender and Age Factors in Tsunami Casualties

Abstract

A tsunami casualty model is developed with criteria based on whether a person can remain standing within tsunami flow. A simplified model of a human body is made using anthropometric data. By applying the model to tsunami inundation predictions generated by analytic solution of fully nonlinear shallow-water wave theory, we demonstrate quantitatively that differences in gender and age fatalities are most pronounced when a tsunami is marginally significant; strong tsunamis wipe out population almost indiscriminately. This trend is consistent with some of the field observations. It is important to consider gender and age factors when a coastal community plans for tsunami preparedness. Because the development of the casualty model is based solely on physical mechanisms, the model results can be used to remove physical causes from field data, which then allows for further investigation of social and behavioral factors.