Protective Actions in Wildfires: Evacuate or Shelter-in-Place?

Abstract

The decision of whether to evacuate or shelter-in-place (SIP) in a wildfire poses a significant challenge for emergency managers and residents in fire-prone areas. Events such as the 2007 Witch Creek Fire and 2008 Tea Fire in California highlight the option and viability of SIP, as well as the conflict that can occur between first-responders and residents in protecting life and property. In general, anecdotes abound of people choosing SIP over evacuation in wildfires using a variety of means of refuge (e.g., structure, safe area, and water body). We propose a typology of wildfire protective actions that includes all viable forms of in-place shelter and discuss heuristics that have been proposed to guide people through the options. A key distinction is drawn between SIP as a backup plan when evacuation is perceived as too risky and SIP to improve structure survivability. Regardless of the form that SIP takes, the need for this strategy is growing as the wildland-urban interface expands. The paper concludes with a discussion of suggested areas for research and planning.