Risk Analysis of a Protected Hurricane-Prone Region. II: Computations and Illustrations

Abstract

This paper describes a case study implementing a methodology for assessing risks to protected hurricane-prone regions. A simple hurricane protection system is constructed to illustrate the required inputs for the system definition, computations, and hazard and risk profiles. The inputs include the required specifications for basin and subbasin reaches, transitions, and associated fragilities, closures, and storm parameters. Moreover, the case study produces elevation- and loss-exceedance probability and rate curves for each subbasin and the system as a whole, and demonstrates quantitative benefit-cost analysis using this risk information. The implementation of the risk model is packaged as the Flood Risk Analysis for Tropical Storm Environments tool currently in use by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineering Interagency Performance Evaluation Team charged with assessing hurricane risks to the New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana, and proposed changes to the hurricane protection system.