Risk Analysis of a Protected Hurricane-Prone Region. I: Model Development

Abstract

A risk analysis methodology is presented in this paper for protected hurricane-prone regions. The methodology is intended to assist decision and policy makers, and has the characteristics of being analytic, transparent, quantitative, and probabilistic. The hazard is quantified using a probabilistic framework to obtain hazard profiles as elevation-exceedance rates, and the risk profiles as loss-exceedance rates that are based on a spectrum of hurricanes determined using a joint probability distribution of the parameters that define hurricane intensity. The resulting surges, waves, and precipitations are used to evaluate the performance of a hurricane protection system consisting of a series of basins and subbasins that define the interior drainage characteristics of the system. The protection against flooding is provided by levees, floodwalls, closure gates, and interior drainage system and pumping stations. Stage-storage relationships define the characteristics of subbasins and the population and property at risk. The proposed methodology will enable decision makers to evaluate alternatives for managing risk such as: providing increased hurricane protection, increasing evacuation effectiveness, changing land-use policy, enhancing hurricane protection system operations, and increasing public and governmental preparedness.