Modeling Changes in Hurricane Risk over Time

Abstract

This paper presents a new methodology for estimating changes in hurricane risk (annual expected economic losses) over time. A case study illustrates application of the methodology in Dare and New Hanover counties in North Carolina. Most current available loss estimation models use the present-day building inventory as input to estimate future hurricane losses. However, the number, locations, types, and vulnerability of buildings in a region vary with time, thus compromising the accuracy of loss estimates and the effectiveness of mitigation plans based on those estimates. The methodology presented here integrates four models—wind hazard, building inventory change, building vulnerability change, and economic change—in a simulation framework to compute changes in expected annual hurricane losses over time. Case study results indicate the estimated rate of change of expected annual hurricane losses and the relative importance of different factors affecting that change.