Designing Safe Systems: Using System Dynamics to Understand Complexity

Abstract

All geographical regions are subject to devastation and disruption from natural disasters. Optimizing safety requires understanding the natural and social systems involved in disasters, communicating clearly with decision makers that affect those systems, and identifying potentially effective interventions for consideration. The application of system dynamics modeling, a metatheoretical and methodological approach of systems theory, helps to accomplish all three. After a brief reference to system’s current place in hazards research and practice, the usefulness and types of systems models, including causal loop diagrams and stock and flow diagrams, are discussed. The methodological specification of system dynamics modeling is explained, along with the general modeling process. Conclusions are advanced with a discussion of the application of system dynamics modeling in hazards work and its place in designing safe systems.