Socioeconomic Reverberations of Earthquake Prediction: Snapshot in Time, Peru 1979–1981

Abstract

Although the scientific capability to predict earthquakes has proven more elusive than was hoped for several decades ago, the concern over the social and economic response to prediction of an earthquake remains high. This paper examines the social and economic response to a scientific prediction for a strong earthquake to occur off Lima, Peru in mid-1981. The principal findings are that (1) public knowledge and anxiety over the prediction was widespread in Peru, but the behavioral response was relatively modest; and (2) corporations reviewed emergency plans and contingencies, especially insurance coverage, which saw a significant but temporary rise at the national level.