Modeling and Forecasting of Bohai Sea Ice

Abstract

The sea ice model for simulating ice growth, decay, and drift in the Bohai Sea was developed based on the ice conditions in the Sea and on existing sea ice models. Both dynamic and thermodynamic processes of sea ice are incorporated into the model. The viscous-plastic constitutive law is applied to estimate the internal ice stress. The thermodynamic growth rates are determined from the effect of thermodynamic forcing from atmosphere and ocean, which are parameterized according to the heat exchanges at the air/ice, air/water, and ice/water interfaces. This model is coupled with an oceanic model and is linked to a numerical weather prediction model for forecasting ice conditions in the Bohai Sea and the northern Yellow Sea. Statistical verification was used to make an objective assessment of the model. This paper summarizes the development of the sea ice model and its application in Bohai Sea ice forecast.