Temporally Decelerated and Spatially Balanced Urbanization in China during 1996–2022

Abstract

China’s urbanization level climbed from 18% in 1978 to 65.22% in 2022, yet a comprehensive understanding of its spatiotemporal dynamics remains elusive. This study examines the temporal and spatial characteristics of provincial urbanization levels in China from 1996 to 2022. Urbanization accelerated until 2017, after which it slowed, with annual growth rates falling from 1.45% (1996–2000) to 0.8% (2017–2022). Most provinces mirrored this pattern. This slowdown suggests that the era of explosive urban growth is giving way to a slower pace. Spatially, disparities have narrowed, moving toward a more balanced distribution. Statistical indicators like variance, coefficient of variation, and Gini index declined, while the global Moran’s I rose from 0.26 to 0.4, indicating stronger spatial autocorrelation. The urbanization pattern transitioned from high in the north and low in the south to high in the east and low in the west. Projections suggest that by 2035, most provinces will achieve an urbanization level of 70%. Nighttime light data support this forecast, revealing significant urban development in large and small cities, which exhibit substantial growth potential. This indicates that future urbanization will increasingly focus on the central and western regions, where there is significant room for development. To navigate this complex condition, it is essential to implement tailored urbanization strategies that address the unique conditions and needs of each province.