A Hybrid Approach Integrating Physics-Based Models and Expert-Augmented Neural Networks for Ship Fuel Consumption Prediction

Abstract

The International Maritime Organization’s recent approval of the 2023 strategy on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions amplifies the pressure on stakeholders to achieve net-zero emissions in shipping by 2050. Considering the anticipated predominance of traditional single-fuel engines into the next decade, due to their high efficiency and economic benefits, the implementation of operational measures stands as the foremost effective method for mitigating emissions and reducing fuel consumption. Accurate fuel consumption prediction is crucial for informed decision-making and operational efficiency. This paper introduces an innovative hybrid model, combining an advanced physics-based model with an expert-augmented neural network, offering superior fuel consumption predictions. Expert knowledge is integrated into the neural network model to enhance its learning capabilities. Performance is validated against DNV Navigator Insight and publicly available fuel consumption reporting data, demonstrating superiority over purely data-driven and physics-based models. This hybrid approach bridges accuracy and scalability for sustainable maritime operations.