System Dynamics–Based Construction Risk Analysis of a Coastal Ribbon Landscape Project

Abstract

Growing coastal populations intensify environmental stress and pollution. Effective coastal ecological landscape construction is essential for the revival and enhancement of marine ecosystems. Despite this, compared with studies on coastal areas, there are few studies on the risks of coastal landscape construction. This study introduces a construction risk management model for coastal ribbon landscape projects, employing system dynamics for a quantitative and dynamic risk analysis to detect potential construction threats. Initially, the study comprehensively identified 8 primary and 40 secondary indicator risks through a literature review and expert interviews. Subsequently, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) entropy weighting method was utilized to pinpoint key risk factors. A causal loop model and stock-flow diagram of these risk factors were developed using system dynamics. The study then analyzed specific countermeasures for each risk type and simulated the dynamics of three risk response models: staged, cyclical, and normalized. The findings indicated that technical, management, and quality risks are the predominant drivers, with their values increasing in an almost linear fashion. Analysis of the risk response models suggests that cyclical control of technical and safety risks is the most effective mitigation strategy. This approach facilitates the identification of critical issues and the formulation of appropriate measures, robustly underpinning the sustainable development of coastal regions.