Risk Analysis of Gas Pipeline in Karst Area Based on Multilevel Hierarchical Structure Model

Abstract

In this paper, a risk analysis method of gas pipeline in karst area based on the integrated model of the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory–interpretive structural model (DEMATEL– ISM) method and the cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to classification (MICMAC) method is proposed. Based on causal chain theory and crossed track theory, the composite causal model of accidents is established from four dimensions of human, material, environment, and management. Based on the DEMATEL–ISM method, the hierarchical structure and causal relationship between risk factors are analyzed from the perspective of chain evolution, and the surface direct cause, middle indirect cause, and deep root cause of accidents are investigated. The MICMAC method is used to analyze the dependence degree and driving force of multivariate risk factors, and all factors are divided into four clusters: the independent cluster, the dependent cluster, the linkage cluster, and the spontaneous cluster. The work presented in this paper can provide a reference for the safety management and accident prevention of gas pipelines crossing the karst area.