As Existing Cities Adapt to Climate Change, Can Dynamic Systems Analysis Be Useful in Building a Sustainable Future?

Abstract

The World Meteorological Organization estimates that Swiss glaciers lost 6% of their volume in 2022 (Niiler, 2023, “Europe’s Glaciers Melted at Record Rate,” Wall Street J). For summer tourism, this happens to be good news. This means a busier and longer season, more biking and hiking tours and more income for tour operators. However, there are steeper costs that come with such localized benefits of climate change; smaller glaciers also mean less water for drinking, less water for the crops, and less hydroelectricity for the population at-large. This paper outlines how cities and urban areas may moderate the effects of climate change, adapt coping strategies and assure a sustainable future for local populations and the region’s economy by analyzing the cross-correlation, magnitude, and time-dependence of the “causes” and the “effects.” After investigating other mathematical models addressing the effects of climate change (Fernandez et al., 2017, “A 3D Optimal Control Problem Related to the Urban Heat Islands,” J. Math. Anal. Appl., 446(2), pp. 1571–1605; Eikenberry and Gumel, 2018, “Mathematical Modeling of Climate Change and Malaria Transmission Dynamics: A Historical Review,” J. Math. Biol., 77(4), pp. 857–933; Mordecai et al., 2013, “Optimal Temperature for Malaria Transmission is Dramatically Lower Than Previously Predicted,” Ecol. Lett., 16(1), pp. 22–30), this paper proposes a dynamic systems and controls approach to urban development and planning. Climate-related risks such as a rise in temperature that diminishes the ability of typically low-skilled workers to work outside or coastal flooding that shrinks a city’s housing stock and pushes poorer populations to homelessness, crime, and drug abuse are interconnected as in a dynamic system that changes with time in scale and need to be analyzed accordingly (see Fig.1). The author also proposes creating “digital twins” of critical infrastructure, which can be done at comparatively lower cost, in order to analyze if the “inputs” including the remedial measures proposed, will yield the desired “outputs” and run iterations as needed until stable solutions are found.