Estimating Reservoir Sedimentation Using Machine Learning

Abstract

Several reservoirs across the United States are filling with sediment, which jeopardizes their functionality and increases maintenance costs. USACE developed the Reservoir Sedimentation Information (RSI) system to assess reservoir aggradation and track dam operation suitability for water resource management and dam safety. The RSI data set contains historical elevation-capacity data for approximately 400 dams (excluding navigation structures), which correspond to less than 1% of dams across the United States. Thus, there is a critical need to develop methods for estimating reservoir sedimentation for unmonitored sites. The goal of this project was to create a generalized method for estimating reservoir sedimentation rates using reservoir design information and watershed data. To meet this objective, geospatial tools were used to build a refined composite data set to complement the RSI system’s data with precipitation and watershed characteristics. Nine deep learning models were then used on the benchmark data set to determine its accuracy at predicting capacity loss for the RSI reservoirs: four supervised machine learning models, four deep neural network (DNN) models, and a multilinear power regression model. A DNN model, containing a progressively increasing node and layer construction, was deemed the most accurate, with R2 values from its calibration and validation data sets being 0.83 and 0.70, respectively. The best model was recalibrated over the entire data set, which showed greater accuracy on the prediction of the RSI reservoir’s capacity loss, with an R2 of 0.81. This predictive model could be used to evaluate the capacity loss of unmonitored reservoirs, forecast sedimentation rates under future climate conditions, and identify reservoirs with the highest risk of losing functionality. Many communities depend on reservoirs for a variety of socioeconomic benefits, such as providing reliable water sources and flood mitigation. Rivers entering reservoirs are a constant source of silt, sand, and gravel particles (i.e., sediments) that deposit slowly, filling the reservoirs over time, thus reducing their volume capacity and effectiveness. Surveys to measure reservoir capacities are labor intensive and expensive and many sites go unmonitored. This study provides prediction tools to estimate capacity loss over time using data derived from publicly available data sources (e.g., digital elevation models, monthly precipitation data, and the National Inventory of Dams). A key role of this tool is to forecast reservoir capacity loss over time under varying climate change conditions and relate the associated sedimentation processes to local and regional conditions. The tool can also be applied broadly to hindcast capacity loss for reservoirs with or without prior surveys for identifying high-risk sites that should be investigated further. USACE plans to use these prediction tools with the RSI database to conduct a national assessment of reservoir impacts, which will inform distributions of federal resources to address water security concerns related to reservoir sedimentation.