Evaluating the Effects of Climate Change on Spring Load Restrictions across Ontario, Canada

Abstract

Recently, numerous studies have highlighted that the climate worldwide is changing rapidly due to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The average ambient temperatures across Canada are rising approximately twice as fast as the rest of the world. The projected change in climate may increase the air and surface temperature indices, thus affecting the duration of spring load restrictions (SLRs) on roads, which may potentially impact the trucking industry and economy. Therefore, the best practices must be adjusted when identifying the optimal SLR periods that consider climate change. In Ontario, Canada, the SLR periods are imposed based on subsurface temperature data that is obtained from the road weather information system (RWIS) and spring load adjustment (SLA) stations in conjunction with visual observations. In this study, different methods of determining SLR periods were investigated. Then, new models were developed to correlate the surface cumulative thawing index (CTI) and thawing depth (TD) of a site. These models were developed utilizing atmospheric, surface, and subsurface data that was collected from different SLA and RWIS weather stations at various locations across Ontario, Canada. Finally, the developed models were utilized to predict the SLR periods for future scenarios using data from different global circulation models (GCM) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs). This study concludes that the SLR periods are expected to shrink across Ontario, Canada, by 2100. The results of this study might help different road authorities and trucking agencies maximize the life of the road structure and minimize the economic hardships that are faced during SLR periods.