Applying Machine Learning Techniques to Identify Key Factors Motivating Flood-Prone Residents to Implement Private Flood Mitigation Measures

Abstract

Flood mitigation behavior is essential for effective flood risk management, particularly in Australia, where the federal government has increasingly emphasized individual responsibility for preventing and preparing for flood disasters. Despite this emphasis, around 60% of flood-prone residents hesitate to adopt private mitigation measures. Their reluctance highlights the complexities of decision making regarding the implementation mitigation measures, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of flood mitigation behavior among Australian residents. In order to address this knowledge gap, we conducted household surveys in flood-prone regions of Australia and used six machine learning algorithms—logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural network—to analyze the proposed framework for flood mitigation behavior. The results of five-fold cross-validation demonstrated that the random forest algorithm provided superior accuracy for predicting protection motivation compared to the other five algorithms. Furthermore, seven of the 37 predictors utilized in the model had a higher impact on protection motivation than the other predictors. These influential predictors included self-efficacy, response efficacy, response costs, key variables within the coping appraisal factor, fear or worry about future flood risk, one variable associated with the threat appraisal factor, past experiences of flooding inside the house linked to the prior flood experience factor, and the implementation of flood mitigation measures by individuals connected to the householder, such as family, friends, and neighbors, which pertains to the social environment factor within the proposed framework for flood mitigation behavior. These predictors were deemed adequate to be used as input variables in the random forest model, because they provided accuracy and performance similar to when all 37 predictors were included. These insights into influential predictors can be used to develop an optimal prediction model for protection motivation in flood-prone areas of Australia and reduce the effort needed to collect the required data during postdisaster surveys. This research is of value to policymakers and floodplain managers in designing effective flood mitigation strategies and promoting the adoption of protective measures in flood-prone communities to reduce flood risk.