Urban Metro Systems: Configurational Analysis of Antecedent Conditions Influencing High Metro Ridership

Abstract

The development of urban rail transit systems is progressing rapidly, and an increasing number of cities worldwide are either in the process or planning to construct urban rail transit systems. However, questions arise as to whether all cities truly require such systems and how to prevent these transit systems from becoming decorative rather than essential to urban development. This paper collates various antecedent conditions that may influence ridership in rail transit across 31 cities in China with operating rail transit. To this end, it uses two main methods, including necessary condition analysis and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis methodologies. In this way, it explores the interactive effects of multiple factors such as the level of urban development, trends in urban development, ground-level road network congestion, urban spatial patterns (centrality), coverage of rail transit, and government focus on rail transit. The results show that no single antecedent condition can be a necessary condition for high ridership in rail transit. Rather, the effective combination of various antecedent conditions has elevated postimplementation ridership in a different means, same end manner. Moreover, the government's focus on rail transit development or its effective planning can increase postimplementation ridership in cities lacking some objective resource conditions. Furthermore, ridership in most cities remains stable after the initiation of rail transit. The findings imply that the development of urban rail transit systems requires a comprehensive urban development plan, which covers urban growth trends, congestion levels, and spatial patterns.