Bimodal Distribution–Based Collision Probability of Ship with Buoy in Two-Way Navigable Channel

Abstract

In this paper, a bimodal normal distribution model of ship traffic flow is developed to more accurately model the probability of ships colliding with buoys in a two-way navigable channel and reduce the estimation error caused by the normal distribution model. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first introduced bimodal normal distribution into ship traffic flow in a two-way navigable channel. An opposition-based learning multi-verse optimizer (OLMVO) is proposed to minimize the fitting error of the probability density function and obtain the optimal parameters in the bimodal model using a data-driven method from the automatic identification system (AIS). The obtained results show that the probability of ship-buoy collision increases with the increase of B, σ1, and Bb, and decreases with the increase of μ1. Two application examples in Xiamen Port and Quanzhou Port are illustrated to validate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling method. This study enriches the meticulous research on the probability of ships colliding with buoys in two-way navigable channels. The proposed method can inform decisions and recommendations for the safety management of the buoy competent department, the maritime department, and the buoy management. The probability model of ship-buoy collision can help put forward ways to reduce the potential of collision incidents, such as widening the channel and adjusting the two-way navigable channel. This study aims to assist in establishing a rational, comprehensive, and scientific navigational aid system, which allows to reduce the number of accidents in ship navigation, decrease the chances of navigational aids being struck, and reduce the costs associated with navigational aid management. It aims to provide high-quality navigation services for vessels entering and exiting ports. This study has already been applied in practical projects such as the “Research on the Displacement Model of Floating Light Buoys Based on Telemetry Big Data and Its Application Demonstration in Xiamen Port.”