Positive Psychological Predictors of Preparedness for Tornadoes, Structural Fires, and Large-Scale Disease Outbreaks: A Study of US University Students and Employees

Abstract

Individuals often underestimate disaster risk and overestimate their own preparedness, even for disasters they have experienced. Considering the varied effects of prior disaster exposure on preparedness, the psychological trauma literature can inform models of preparedness among hazard survivors. Posttraumatic growth (PTG), or positive changes after a stressor, could explain how some, but not all, disaster survivors come to value and engage in preparedness. University students and employees (N=1,113) in a tornado-prone region of the United States were surveyed from 2015 to 2016 about preparedness for tornadoes, structural fires, and large-scale disease outbreaks. For each hazard type, they reported perceived likelihood, self-efficacy responding to the hazard, how much they valued preparedness, and their prior exposure to the hazard. Tornado survivors (N=661) were further asked how many tornadoes they had experienced, the severity of the impact (e.g., injured, lost electricity), and their perceived PTG from tornadoes. Comparing each variable by hazard type, perceived likelihood, and prior exposure were greater for tornadoes compared with disease and fire. For tornado survivors, PTG mediated the effect of tornado severity on both preparedness and valuing preparedness. In conclusion, PTG is a process by which disaster experiences result in increased disaster preparedness. Simply experiencing a disaster, even a severe one, does not necessarily instill disaster preparedness as a value; however, positive change in recovery from a severe disaster involves caring more about preparedness and becoming increasingly prepared. Enhanced disaster preparedness is not an inevitable outcome of disaster exposure, but it is a potential outcome of psychological recovery from disaster trauma. Integrating the present findings, the preparedness literature, and the psychological trauma literature, we propose an integrated individual-level disaster resilience cycle model.