Probabilistic Analysis of Dynamic Shakedown of Pavement due to Vehicular Loads and Earthquakes

Abstract

The uncertainties related to the inherent properties of pavement subgrade subjected to the dynamic effect of vehicular and earthquake loading were studied extensively using probabilistic analysis. The dynamic effect of the loading on pavement was modeled using lower bound shakedown analysis. Pavement subgrade was considered to be purely cohesive and was assumed to fail through the Mohr–Coulomb yield criterion. The soil spatial variability was simulated using random fields, which were represented in the form of finite-element random variables using the Karhunen–Loéve expansion method. The effect of parameter uncertainty was investigated using stochastic results such as the mean, coefficient of variation, and failure probability of the structure using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. The effect of dynamic loading of vehicles was studied by varying the period of vehicular movement. The dynamic shakedown was analyzed using two different methods. Seismic waves were generated using modified pseudodynamic approach. The combined effect of moving vehicles and earthquake was studied to determine the worst-case scenario. It was found that the generation of seismic waves affects the direction and frequency of the moving vehicle, which reduces the effect of shakedown on pavements due to vehicular load. The worst-case scenario was found to be the pavements with period ratio of 0.06 for a deterministic analysis, whereas it was 0.48 for a probabilistic analysis.